How climate change will impact on health

Public Health

As the world debates how to deal with the realities of climate change, its impact on population health should not be underestimated.

That is the clear message from new research at the University of Adelaide which examined the association between climatic factors and selected infectious diseases and then predicted the likely future disease burden associated with climate change and an ageing population.

In her recently submitted PhD thesis, Ms Ying Zhang projects that the morbidity burden (assessed in terms of years lost due to disability or YLDs) for Ross River Virus infection and salmonellosis, associated with climate change, might double by 2050, compared with 2000, in both temperate and subtropical regions in Australia, if other factors remain constant.

The figures are even more alarming in China, where the YLDs for malaria and bacillary dysentery related to climate change might triple over the same period, whether in temperate or subtropical regions.

Ms Zhang, who previously lectured at China's Shandong University, recently completed her research in the University of Adelaide's Discipline of Public Health, under the supervision of Dr Peng Bi and Professor Janet Hillier.

Earlier this year she received a China Scholarship Council award from the Chinese Government, recognising her as one of the best Chinese PhD candidates worldwide.

The award, worth US$5000, is judged on the basis of a candidate's scholarly output (Ms Zhang has co-written seven papers in peer-reviewed journals while in Adelaide and presented at six conferences in Australia, China, France and Thailand) and the contribution the research will make to China.

"This study aims to provide scientific evidence for policy makers, researchers, public health practitioners and local communities in the development of public health strategies at an early stage in order to prevent or reduce future risks," Ms Zhang said.

"Public and preventive health strategies that consider local climatic conditions may be important in reducing the future impact of climate change."

The research found that maximum and minimum temperatures are important in the transmission of both vector-borne and enteric diseases in various climatic regions in Australia and China, while river flow or high tides may also play a role.

More papers on the subject will follow, although Ms Zhang's primary research focus will now turn to the epidemiology of healthy ageing - another issue that is as relevant in China as it is in Australia. She will be based at the University of Adelaide for the next two years.

Ms Zhang was joined last year by her microbiologist husband Dr Yang Kong, who is a 78th generation descendant of Confucius (whose surname also was Kong).

There is a neat symmetry here, as Shandong University - where both Ms Zhang and Dr Kong studied - is the key partner in the University of Adelaide's Confucius Institute, which was launched in March to promote the study and understanding of Chinese language and culture and its economy.

Strong links also are emerging between public health academics from the two universities.

Story by Nick Carne