Data wrap – unemployment rises while wages growth remains weak

In today’s Data Wrap we review recent key statistical releases for the South Australian economy, including latest results for the labour market, wages growth, business confidence and inflation for the local government sector.

Unemployment moves higher
The South Australian labour market lost momentum in July but recent gains in employment have been largely retained. ABS data indicates that South Australia’s trend unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.3 per cent in July, its highest level in two years. In comparison, the national unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 5.3 per cent, and remains well below the South Australian figure.

Total employment in South Australia showed a flat trend in July (up just 300 persons) but its level was still 1.6 per cent (13,400 persons) higher than a year earlier. Growth in full-time employment has flattened off over the past seven months after growing strongly through the latter part of 2018.

In spite of the solid rise in total employment over the past year the unemployment rate has increased sharply over this period, from 5.6 per cent to 6.3 per cent. This rise is wholly due to a large lift in labour force participation. South Australia’s participation rate rose from 62.6 per cent to 63.4 per cent through the year to July 2019, and is now at its highest level in eight years.

Increases in unemployment that arise through increases in the participation rate are generally healthy to the extent they reflect that more people are willing to look for work due to improved employment prospects (the so-called “encouraged worker effect”). However, it is possible that a deterioration in financial circumstances has forced some people to look for work, and there remains the significant challenge of creating jobs for those additional job seekers.

In comparison to other states and territories, South Australia had the third highest trend unemployment rate in July 2019. Tasmania retained the highest unemployment rate in the nation (6.7 per cent) while unemployment was marginally higher in Queensland (6.4 per cent). In contrast, unemployment was relatively low in New South Wales (4.5 per cent), Victoria (4.8 per cent) and the Australian Capital Territory (3.5 per cent).

Wage growth remains sluggish
Wage growth in South Australia remains relatively weak and has barely improved over the past year, latest Wage Price Index (WPI) data from the ABS reveals. The WPI index for South Australia rose by 2.2 per cent through the year to the June quarter 2019, compared to a rise of 2.1 per cent over the previous year. While the latest annual result represents a moderate improvement from the previous historical low of 1.9 per cent recorded in the December quarter 2017, it remains well below the long-term average growth rate of 3.2 per cent.

A slightly stronger pick up in wages growth has occurred at the national level over the past year, which is consistent with generally healthier labour market conditions at the national level. Through the year to the June quarter 2019 the national WPI rose by 2.4 per cent, up from 2.1 per cent over the previous year.

Data on average weekly earnings (AWE) provides another measure of recent income patterns, though it is important to note that AWE data are not directly comparable to WPI data due to conceptual differences.¹

The latest average weekly earnings data, which were released last week, indicates that earnings growth has picked up in South Australia but remains relatively subdued. South Australian full-time adult average ordinary time average weekly earnings rose by 1.8 per cent to $1,475.20 in the twelve months to May 2019, whereas they showed virtually no change over the previous 12 month period. In comparison, corresponding earnings at the national level over the same period rose by 3.0 per cent to $1633.80, which compares with a rise of 2.6 per cent over the previous 12 months.

Business confidence has fallen
Two local surveys of South Australian businesses indicate that confidence has fallen through the first half of the year. The Business SA – William Buck Survey of Business Expectations indicates that business confidence experienced a significant fall in the June quarter (down 11.5 points), moving further into negative territory after falling sharply in the March quarter. Meanwhile, the latest BankSA State Monitor recorded a moderate decline between February and July (down 2.9 points), which represents the third consecutive decline.

While both surveys point to weaker business confidence, they differ in the degree to which confidence has deteriorated. The Business SA – William Buck survey indicates that business confidence has fallen sharply, to return to the quite subdued levels seen between 2011 and 2017, whereas the BankSA survey suggests that business confidence has fallen moderately, and remains at a reasonably healthy level.

The BankSA survey indicates that consumer confidence improved slightly in the June quarter (up 1.9 points). While the consumer confidence index has stayed in positive territory for the past five surveys, it remains well below its long run average level.

Inflation faced by local government moderates but remains higher compared to household inflation
The latest quarterly and annual results of the local government price index, which measures price changes faced by local government in South Australia in respect of their purchases of goods and services, were released today by the SA Centre for Economic Studies. They show that inflation faced by local government has moderated over the past year, but remains higher compared to inflation faced by households.

Growth in the LGPI slowed from 2.9 per cent in 2017/18 to 2.6 per cent in 2018/19. In comparison, growth in the Adelaide Consumer Price Index, which measures price changes faced by households, slowed even more sharply over this period, from 2.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

The moderation in price inflation for local government last financial year was brought about by weaker price trends for utilities, automotive fuel and road construction costs. On the other hand, price inflation picked up in respect of wages and salaries, insurance costs and construction materials.

Notes
[1] AWE data measures average gross weekly earnings paid to employees whereas the WPI is designed to measure changes in hourly rates of pay. Hence AWE do not only capture changes in hourly wages, they are influenced by compositional changes such as shifts in employment between full-time, part-time and casual employment, as well as occupations, industries and experience levels, while ‘weekly total earnings’ measures of AWE are also sensitive to changes in the amount of paid overtime worked.